Hurricane Melissa, an exceptionally powerful storm in the Caribbean, is expected to make landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday following a rapid strengthening process, a trend increasingly observed in severe storms affecting the region. Initially a tropical storm on Saturday, Melissa rapidly intensified within a day, boosting its wind speeds from 115 kilometers per hour to 225 kilometers per hour by Sunday. By Monday morning, it had escalated to a Category 5 hurricane, showcasing one of the swiftest intensifications ever witnessed in the Caribbean.
By Monday afternoon, the storm’s winds had surged to 281 kilometers per hour, marking it as the most potent storm worldwide in 2025. Due to its slow movement, Melissa poses significant danger, as noted by Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the U.K.’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science. The prolonged presence of the storm over Jamaica increases the risk of heavy rainfall and associated hazards.
The hurricane has already claimed six lives across the Caribbean, prompting Jamaica to brace for potentially its worst hurricane disaster. Parts of the country could receive up to a meter of rainfall, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Beryl, which struck southern Jamaica last year, resulted in approximately $200 million in losses, equivalent to 1.1% of the country’s GDP, also undergoing rapid intensification.
Deoras attributes Melissa’s strength to two key factors: unusually high ocean surface temperatures in the Caribbean, exceeding normal levels by two to three degrees, and the reliance of tropical storms on this warm water for energy. Exploiting these warm conditions, Melissa rapidly developed as it meandered through the region over the weekend.
The prevalence of elevated ocean temperatures globally is impacting climate systems, with the Pacific Ocean experiencing a significant heatwave leading to abnormal temperatures in North America this fall. Last year, global sea surface temperatures reached record highs, further underscoring the influence of rising ocean heat levels on climate patterns.
Meteorologist Shel Winkley from Climate Central highlights that the warm ocean temperatures, exacerbated by climate change, significantly contributed to the conditions favoring Melissa’s development. Climate Central’s analysis suggests that climate change has bolstered Melissa’s top wind speed by approximately 16 km/h, amplifying the potential economic toll of the storm by 50%. Winkley notes that four out of the five hurricanes this season have undergone rapid intensification, a trend now occurring more frequently compared to previous decades.
