The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its prediction for home sales in 2026 downwards. Despite this, recent data reveals a slight increase in the number of homes sold in June compared to the previous month.
Rising oil prices led to inflation and speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Consequently, bond yields rose, causing fixed mortgage rates to surge earlier this year. While these pressures have somewhat eased, CREA states that they continued to impact the housing market in recent months, alongside a faster-than-anticipated decline in Canada’s population.
The national 2026 sales forecast has been modestly lowered due to a sluggish start to the year and a delayed recovery in the housing market, according to CREA. Initially projecting a slight rise in home sales for 2026, CREA now anticipates a 1.4% decline compared to 2025. This revision follows a previous downgrade in April this year.
June’s data indicates a 0.5% increase in national home sales from the previous month, with a 0.9% rise compared to June 2025. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, mentioned that this positive trend builds on momentum from May, characterizing the current market as still stabilizing.
The MLS home price index reported a benchmark price of $657,700 for homes last month. Although prices in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta experienced declines, Cathcart noted that these decreases are diminishing, and prices nationwide appear to be steadying.
Looking ahead, Ontario and B.C. markets are forecasted to see slight improvements by year-end, while regions like the Prairies and Quebec are witnessing a slowdown, according to Cathcart. With prices stabilizing and interest rates remaining relatively unchanged, prospective buyers may be encouraged to enter the market, signaling a return to more normalized market behavior.
