Demand for electricity in Canada is expected to surge by 2050, as per new projections from the national energy regulator unveiled on Tuesday. The forecasts also anticipate substantial growth in natural gas production and the expansion of renewable energy sources across the country.
The latest modeling from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) emphasizes an anticipated increase in power demand nationwide, with consumption projected to rise by 44% from 2023 to 2050. This escalation is primarily attributed to growing residential and industrial demand, along with the technology sector, notably AI data centers.
Simultaneously, the capacity of Canada’s electricity system is set to double from 160 gigawatts in 2023 to 310 gigawatts by 2050. The surge in production will be predominantly driven by wind energy, with estimates projecting an expansion from 40 terawatt-hours in 2023 to 277 terawatt-hours by 2050, according to the CER.
Darren Christie, the CER’s chief economist, highlighted, “While wind energy is expected to be the largest incremental source of generation, we also anticipate growth in solar energy. These variable sources will be complemented by increased generation from more stable sources like hydroelectricity, nuclear, and natural gas.”
Christie further stated that the role of interprovincial power lines in balancing electricity supply and demand is expected to grow significantly, with total transmission capacity between provinces projected to increase by approximately 70% by 2050.
In Ontario, the construction of the first of four small modular nuclear power plants is underway, with a total cost exceeding $20 billion. Similarly, provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan are pursuing comparable nuclear projects.
The modeling also predicts a relatively stable consumption of oil and natural gas in the coming decades, with a projected 1% increase in fossil fuel use by 2050 compared to 2023.
Regarding natural gas production, estimates suggest an increase from around 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to a range between 21 billion and 32 billion by 2050, contingent on the development of liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities. The growth in natural gas production is largely driven by the expansion of LNG facilities.
The CER’s long-term modeling for oil production remains uncertain due to factors such as fluctuating global commodity prices. Canada’s oil production could potentially rise by 18% by 2050 or decline by 12%.
The CER has introduced four distinct scenarios, including a traditional baseline, which anticipates oil production peaking at 6.1 million barrels per day by 2042 and stabilizing at 5.9 million by 2050.
Despite record levels of oil production currently, emissions are predicted to decrease over the years ahead due to a cleaner electricity grid and enhanced environmental performance in various sectors of the economy. The traditional baseline scenario foresees emissions leveling off in 2035 under existing policies.
To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, a comprehensive shift towards low carbon technologies across the economy is deemed necessary, according to the latest CER energy outlook. This outlook marks the first update since 2023 following the release of the national energy regulator’s first outlook in 1967.
